ABQ

Ryan Weathers, P

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Scouting report

I know that in one sense, Weathers has "passed" MacKenzie Gore at this moment after opening the season in San Diego's rotation, but I have broader concerns about Weathers' long-term success because of his history as a prospect. This is as gutsy and competitive a young guy as there is in the game, and that's part of why he's totally remade his body and is out there competing at the big league level at age 21 while other kids from his high school graduating class are in college or the mid-minors. But Weathers' stuff has been on a roller coaster for the last couple of years, culminating in the joint inflammation that occurred in a late-April start against Arizona. After a dominant beginning to his first full pro season, Weathers' stuff seeped away and he was eventually shut down with a dead arm and missed a chunk of 2019. When he returned, the mid-90s heat from early in the year did not, and Weathers' strikeout rate fell during the dog days of summer. When I saw him later during 2019 instructs, he sat 86-90 for much of his outing, albeit with excellent command, especially of his slider. Last spring, before the pandemic really hit, Weathers was once again living in the mid-90s, and he held that velo for a whole year before he had to leave that aforementioned start against the D-backs with soreness; his fastball was down in the 87-88 mph range. This has happened with Weathers enough that it impacts how I line him up as a prospect despite how quickly he's reached the bigs. There are exceptions, but it's also not typical for a pitcher with a body and delivery like this to stick in a rotation, and while Weathers has surgical slider command, he makes more grip-and-rip use of his fastball and has barely thrown a third pitch as a starter. I'm very confident he'll find a way to make an impact on a pitching staff, but I think he's more likely to end up as a set-up man than a long-term mid-rotation piece. (Alternate site, MLB)