ABQ
Jarren Duran, OF
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Scouting report
The Red Sox and Duran added yet another wrinkle to his already surprising pro development track by making a very significant swing alteration that was evident during the club's alternate site activity. He now starts with a narrower base than before, and his hands are set much lower to start, changes that theoretically create better rotation up through the kinetic chain and natural swing loft, respectively. We won't know if the changes have a substantive impact on Duran's power output until sometime in 2021, as his alt site hitting metrics are meaningless because they were generated against the same mediocre pitchers he saw over and over, but visually, it now appears Duran can better lift pitches in the bottom of the zone. He didn't exactly hit for power in Puerto Rico over the winter, though, and the org thinks it's because his new swing requires more precise timing, which Duran hasn't yet found. Still, let's not forget Duran's tools (he's a 70 runner) nor the foundation of statistical performance he has laid dating back to college. Duran hit a career .294 at Long Beach State but produced almost no power and slipped to the seventh round. Then he torched short-season and Low-A ball after signing, and began 2019, his first full pro campaign, with a ridiculous .387/.456/.543 line at Hi-A. But after seeing him at the 2019 Futures Game, I thought there was a gap between his talent level and that of the typical Futures Gamer, to his detriment. He posted a middling Double-A line during the back half of 2019, and he was similarly underwhelming during an extended look in that season's Fall League. Despite his speed, Duran's instincts in center field are still not good (though they've improved), and he relies on his speed to make up for what he lacks in off-the-bat feel and anticipation. It's possible the swing change has unlocked the power necessary to make Duran a regular, but it's also possible that it has de-stabilized his feel for contact. We won't know until he's generated a bigger statistical sample with the new cut. I have him in as a fourth or platoon outfielder, a 1.5-ish WAR type of player. (Alternate site, Liga de Béisbol)