AKS
Joe Ryan, P
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Scouting report
Last year I wrote in Ryan's report that even with the pitch data I had sourced for the lists, I could not quite explain how it was that he struck out 35% of hitters at Hi-A Port Charlotte with a fastball that only sat 90-94. In the last year, I've better integrated an understanding of pitches' approach angle into my thinking, which helps explain how Ryan's stuff works. Pitchers with a release point lower than his (some notable names include Camillo Doval, Hector Yan, Victor Gonzalez) typically project as relievers, and it's rare for someone with a release point as low as Ryan's to also create something even approaching a backspinning axis (Ryan's fastball has about 1:00 tilt, whereas 12:00 would be perfect backspin) since most pitchers with lower release heights also have low arm slots. But Ryan's delivery is starter-y. His release height is low because, like a lot of the prospects in this system, his levers are really short. So Ryan's fastball approaches the plate at an upward angle and has some carry to it, which makes hitters swing underneath it a lot. There are some relief-only types (like James Karinchak) ahead of him, but among full-season minor league starters who threw upwards of 500 fastballs in 2019, Ryan's heater had the highest swinging strike rate. Part of the reason to wonder if Ryan ends up starting or relieving is because his secondary stuff is less strong. What I called a cutter last year now has more length to it and is clearly a slider. Aside from that, Ryan's mid-70s rainbow curveball and occasional changeup make up a command/control backend starter's four-pitch mix, it's just that he has a dominant fastball to pair with them. He used his fastball 73% of the time in 2019. There's no precedent for that level of usage among big league starters and there's no way of knowing how big league hitters will adjust to seeing that pitch so often until Ryan faces them. I'm going to bucket him in the multi-inning relief category where hitter adjustments are less likely to occur due to the nature of the job, and think Ryan could be a very good version of one. (Alternate site, Fall Instructional League)