CHI
Seth Johnson, P
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Scouting report
Though it hasn't coincided with the same kind of dramatic physical development, Johnson's trajectory is very similar to Luis Patiño's. He is also a converted infielder who only began pitching recently, in Johnson's case during his sophomore season at Louisburg College (the Hurricanes), where he threw just six innings with a fastball that mostly sat in the upper-80s. He then transferred to Campbell, and it was during Fall practices there that his fastball touched the mid-90s and he flashed a plus breaking ball, instantly making him a high-priority look for the following spring (2019) when he was draft-eligible. His stock and performance peaked in late-March of his draft year, then dipped closer to the draft when he failed to get through five or more innings in five of his last eight starts. The Rays took him in the sandwich round and Johnson was only sitting 91-95 in 30-pitch outings after he signed, but remember that he had barely thrown the year before and was pitching more than ever before. The pre-draft dip left room for questions about his season-long durability, and those remain relevant after there was no opportunity for Johnson to answer them during a real 2020 minor league season. But he did show up at instructs sitting 92-98 (including entire outings toward the upper end of that range) and touching 99 with three secondaries that grade out well from a pitch data perspective. We don't yet know how Johnson will respond to a full season of innings as a starter, but he does have starter-quality repertoire depth. His slider (which sat 85-88 at instructs) and curveball both have plus raw spin (his slider's spin rate spiked once the Rays got hold of him), and Johnson has natural feel for killing spin and creating sink on his mid-80s changeup. There's some relief risk created by his delivery (his arm action is still long, and the Rays haven't tweaked his college mechanics at all) and lack of mechanical consistency, but he is a plus on-mound athlete who, again, has barely pitched. I'm comfortable projecting pretty heavily on Johnson's secondaries and command because of the context here. Certainly the relief risk causes Johnson to slide below where he'd rank based purely on his Fall stuff, but his relief outcome isn't all that different than Baz or McClanahan's. (Alternate site, Fall Instructional League)