ABQ
Evan Carter, OF
Edit player ✎
FanGraphs →
MLB →
Scouting report
Carter was arguably my single most important minor league spring evaluation since he was drafted almost out of nowhere. At a time when everyone has a camera in their pocket and the internet exists, it's almost impossible for an early-round prospect to be hidden in a true sense. The 2020 shutdown contributed to Carter's obfuscation (and might again for some 2021 prospects). Many other teams knew of Carter, but did not know his prospectdom in a thorough sense; some thought he was unsignable, others were entirely unaware of him as I was. The Rangers took him 50th overall and he signed for $1.25 million. His 2020 instructs and '21 minor league spring look were both impressive, especially from a breaking ball recognition standpoint. For a hitter who barely saw premium high school pitching as an amateur, his ability to pick out pro-quality breaking balls and lay off of them is remarkable. Pitch recognition and bat control are Carter's two carrying traits right now. He makes great swing decisions and rarely whiffs when he decides to swing. But his bat path, explosiveness, and power are all current issues driving down his quality of contact. Carter has a sweepy bat path that generates a lot of softer groundball contact. He's most able to do damage when he turns his wrists over to catch fastballs toward the north end of the strike zone, but more often he's peppering the infield grass. Will relevant power come? I'm skeptical. Carter has a rectangular 6-foot-4 frame with a fair bit of surface-level projection if you just look at his measurables, but he's built really narrowly, closer to Triston McKenzie from a body comp standpoint than to the other high-profile prep outfielders from the 2020 draft. However, this was once also true of Cody Bellinger, though Carter doesn't have the twitch and explosion of baby Bellinger, who looked like a newborn giraffe at Area Codes. The avenues to power involve more significant physical growth than I expect and/or an impactful swing re-work. I don't think it's especially likely that both of those occur, so I don't think it's likely Carter is some sort of future superstar. Instead he looks like a table-setting center fielder. He's a plus runner underway and has good defensive instincts, while his approach, ability to put balls in play, and speed are all catalytic qualities that fit at the top of a lineup.