DET
Nate Pearson, P
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Scouting report
After a healthy 2019, albeit one during which he was asked to work just four innings per start, Pearson once again had an injury hiccup in 2020. This time his malady, described as right elbow tightness, was actually arm-related after he had previously dealt with an intercostal strain and a fractured ulna caused by a comebacker. The Blue Jays shut him down for about a month, and when Pearson returned he did so as a reliever. Upon coming back, his fastball velocity was not only intact but he threw harder than he did as a starter before he was shut down (he averaged 99 mph after "only" throwing 96 as a starter). After just one post-injury regular season outing, Pearson came out of the bullpen in the final game of Toronto's Wild Card round loss to the Rays, and absolutely paved over Tampa Bay hitters who had just shelled Hyun Jin Ryu. The question the industry hoped Pearson would answer in 2020 was, "Can this guy hold upper-90s cheese all year, every fifth day, as a starter?" I think the answer to that is probably no, and I also think that based on how difficult it's been for him to build a starter's inning count in the minors, Pearson might spend his first couple of big league seasons in some kind of truncated starter's role or as a multi-inning relief weapon. But he does have front-end stuff in his fastball and mid-80s slider, which is often a 70 on the scale. Pearson also walked a bunch of hitters during his 2020 debut but his in-zone location rate was about the big league average, and he pretty consistently executes his fastball and slider where they should be located, so I think it's unlikely he moves to the 'pen for command-related reasons. He also has a curveball and changeup that round out the starter-worthy repertoire, though he's never really been able to throw that curveball for strikes and I'd speculate that the changeup ends up as the tertiary pitch here. His changeup flashes plus but his feel for locating it consistently isn't great, and I think that pitch needs to develop if he's going to max out as a starter. Because FV is a WAR-based prediction and Pearson's innings are likely to be somewhat limited early in his career, perhaps I should have kept his FV in the 55 tier even though he returned from the elbow injury with his usual velocity. But I'm 60'ing him here because of his high-end outcomes, which I think also include a truly elite relief possibility. There's a chance Toronto eventually does with him what the Reds did with Aroldis Chapman, where the team is competitive and Pearson is thriving in a relief role, so they just leave him there. (Alternate site, MLB)