NYH
Royce Lewis, IF
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Scouting report
One of the top-billed high schoolers during a superlative year for talent in Southern California, Lewis began garnering Derek Jeter comparisons while he was still an amateur. To a degree those remain reasonable, though they're no longer applicable across nearly as much of Lewis' skillset as they once were. Initially, those comps came from his penchant for on-field leadership, his swing's finish (though he's way more pull-oriented than Jeter was), his frame, and, less positively, his future as a defensive shortstop. The Twins took him first overall in 2017 and cut a below slot deal, as Lewis was seen as one of five options in a tightly-packed top tier of talent. Throughout his first 18 months as a pro, Lewis had statistical success while being promoted aggressively before a developmental hiccup in 2019. His overall production has slowly come down at each subsequent level, and during a 2019 season split 3-to-1 at Hi- and Double-A, he had a .290 OBP. Then came a robust .353/.411/.565 Arizona Fall League line (he went to pick up reps after an oblique strain during the year) and League MVP award. But in Arizona Lewis still clearly had issues. His swing is cacophonous -- the big leg kick, the messy, excessive movement in his hands -- and it negatively impacts Lewis' timing. He needs to start several elements of the swing early just to catch fastballs, and he's often late anyway. This also causes him to lunge at breaking balls, which Lewis doesn't seem to recognize very well. All of this is bizarre in context, as an advanced hit tool was a huge driver of his amateur profile, but Lewis now looks like a guess hitter. His mannerisms -- Nomar-level batting glove tinkering; deep, heavy, deliberate breaths between pitches; constant uniform adjustment -- are manic, and they seem to pull focus away from the task at hand rather than ground him in a ritualistic way, and the game often seems too fast for him. His swing looked the same during 2020 spring training but, based on a little bit of video sent to me by an executive from another team, appears to have been tweaked at the alt site. He's starting with an open stance now, and the angle of his bat as he sets up is also different (more north/south and away from his shoulder), but he still has that excessive leg kick and extraneous noise in the way his hands load. I don't think the swing works as currently constituted -- it's a mechanical departure from when Lewis was successful in high school -- but I think it'll get dialed in eventually because of his athleticism and work habits. Plus, we now have evidence that he's open and able to make adjustments. As the org stated he would in mid-March, Lewis focused on playing shortstop at the alt site. Their public desire to move Jorge Polanco around as a super utility type perhaps opens the door for him to get big league reps at short next year unless the Twins sign a stopgap option. I still think Lewis' eventual role will be that of a multi-positional rover who plays center field and a couple different infield spots. We won't know anything about whether his new swing has had an impact on his hitting until we have a sufficient 2021 performance sample, but as I said last year, I'm betting big on Lewis' makeup and physical talent. His BPs were the best in the entire Fall League. He is an exceptional teammate, leader, and worker, who did more early infield work than anyone else I saw in the AFL, willing himself to become a viable left side defender even though he lacks the traditional grace and fluidity for those positions. Even if some of the pitch recognition stuff proves to be a long-term issue, the floor here is that of a multi-positional role player who hits for considerable power. There may be an adjustment period similar to the one Javier Báez experienced early in his career because of the approach issues, but the star-level talent will eventually shine through. (Alternate site)